My buddy Matt Burke's take on the election

(My buddy Matt Burke worked for John McCain's 2000 campaign and now works as a lawyer in Atlanta.)


Things are not spinning out of control

October 16, 2008

By Matt Burke

I will admit right upfront that I am not feeling too good about this election. I have been having conversations with myself, wondering if an Obama election will really be all that bad for America. Thankfully, after 5 seconds I realize that it will, and my strength to fight comes back.

As of this date, Senator Obama is in the lead, however it is not as comfortable of a margin as has been advertised. I suspect the real percentage lead is about 4%, and it is a shaky one. There are several things that can happen which will reverse this lead. In no particular order, here they are:

a) Already there is talk that during the months of November and December, after a presumptive Obama victory, Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid are going to halt offshore drilling and pass another multi- billion dollar stimulus package. If the voters find out about this before Election Day, that would seriously derail Obama’s election chances. Recall 1992, when the voters elected President Clinton for “It’s the economy stupid” and the first issue he tackled before he was even inaugurated was gays in the military. Many Americans were left saying that “gays in the military” was not what they voted for. Americans are not voting for Obama to halt offshore drilling. This information could become similar to the Wellstone memorial in 2002. Recall that in 2002, Dems were expected to pick up large gains in the House and Senate, until their performance at the Paul Wellstone memorial. They were then handed a rousing defeat. Get this information out NOW!!!!
b) During the primaries, Obama had a hard time closing with undecided voters. Most undecideds went overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton, choosing experience over novelty. Most polls show 5-10% undecided voters out there, which will be a large late pickup for McCain.
c) During the primaries, Obama never performed as well as the polls predicted. Most times, he underperformed by 3-7%. There are many reasons for this, including the much reported “Bradley effect”, known as racial leakage. Whatever the reason, expect Obama to underperform when compared to the polls.
d) Recent Presidential Elections have shown a tendency to inaccurately predict Democratic advantages. A political science professor calculated that recent Presidential polls inflate Democratic numbers by an average of 1.3% and under-report Republican numbers by 1.2%. So, this would mean that the race is 2.5% closer than the polls are reporting.
e) Not only has there been a tendency to inaccurately predict Democratic advantages, this year has been worse. Most pollsters have been oversampling Democratic voters, which greatly affect the outcome of the poll. A recent poll of 700 voters came back with 230 Democrats polled, 223 Republicans and the rest Independent. The poll took those numbers and decided that they did not reflect America, so they weighted the poll so that the final numbers showed 248 Democrats, 211 Republicans and the rest independent. Are any of you shocked that this poll showed a 10 point Obama lead? Recent election results have shown that we are a 35% Democrat, 32% Republican country. If the polls were similarly weighted, I bet that we would show this race is within the margin of error.
f) Another reason for the oversampling formula being used in favor of Democrats is the increase in voter registrations for the Democratic Party. As we have seen from recent news regarding ACORN and voter registration, that increase in voter registration is based on flawed numbers. Mickey Mouse is not going to show up on Election Day, nor is that man who was registered 73 times going to vote 73 times!!

I realize that I may be looking at things through rose colored glasses, but I do believe that things are not as bad as they seem.

I'm getting my vienna sausages....

Yep. With all the tracking polls leaning Obama's way and even the Scholastic kids vote going Obama 57-39 percent, I'm heading to the grocery store tomorrow to start stacking up on vienna sausages and bottled water. That is what some of the good 'ol boys used to tell me when I was hosting in Columbus(GA) years ago when Bill Clinton took over. They were stocking up on the gun powder too waiting on the government to come "git 'em." I used to chuckle at that attitude but I think the sentiment is back with the impending reality of an Obama occupation coming. Personally, I think we'll survive whoever is President but it does appear a dark four years coming with Obama and and no checks and balances on a democratic Congress. I've been telling my republican friends for a while now that I feared what appears to be the outcome. I believe McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as VP didn't help matters. She is a nice lady who we would all like to invite into our homes but doesn't carry the experience or expertise that McCain needed with him. McCain and others knew that an economic crisis was coming(I've been talking about it so I'm sure they knew) and Mitt Romney was the pick that helped him both from a strategic standpoint and from the experience perspective. Here a proven Governor with enormous Wall Street experience is the perfect person to turn to in this time of economic peril. McCain has said during the campaign that he doesn't "know much about the economy." So, having Romney on the ticket would be someone of depth in this area. Romney, not Palin, also would have given McCain a demographic strategy that might have worked. Romney's popularity in Michigan might have provided a republican victory. His ties to the West would have certainly helped in states like Colorado, Montana and Nevada. All three of these states are still in play. Palin's lack of knowledge on so many important issues affecting the nation, not just Alaska, aren't helping McCain. I do not believe she hurts the ticket because so many republicans are excited about her but I do not think she helps McCain win. That is what it is all about you know. Many conservatives you see or listen too were cheerleading the pick because they found out that Joe Leiberman was actually McCain's first choice. They were simply relieved that he actually picked a conservative albeit one so void of experience.
So, may be it is time to get those canned goods and get ready to hole up somewhere for the next four years. We'll know for sure in about 20 days.

Debate this week..live on WOAI/San Antonio

Hope you will catch me Wednesday night 10:30pm ET on WOAI/San Antonio. You can listen live at www.WOAI.com

I think we can say that this Wednesday night is likely the last chance for John McCain to turn around this election. He has been hands off during the previous two debates and more "gentlemanly." He must be pointed in his assertions why he should be President and why we should be afraid of a President Obama. Obama's various associations with known terrorists and American haters must be made. McCain should say that the reason he is obliged to do it is because the media will not. You hear Democrats say that Obama has little association with Bill Ayers who bombed the Pentagon and Capitol. However, the first fund raiser kicking off his campaign for State Senate occured in Ayer's home. Despite the fact those bombings occurred when Obama was eight years old, he allowed this man to hold the fund raiser and served with him on an education board. Many of you keep emailing me about your frustration with McCain and pessimism about the election. I, too, when looking at the various state by state polls wonder where McCain is going to make up ground. We can only hope there is a miracle in there or this nation will take a major step toward socialism with Obama and a Democratic congress.

Debate and other thoughts this morning

I was hosting on WOAI/San Antonio last night following the Presidential debate between Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama. My take is similiar to others who found it somewhat boring and didn't change the dynamic of this election. Obama is leaving in 9 battleground states McCain must win just to have a chance to win the election and it is only 26 days to go. When I watch McCain, he always reminds me why I never liked him in the first place. How many times (3?) did he mention Joe Lieberman and also how he worked with Sen. Kennedy and Sen. Fiengold on legislation. These three have often been our most ardent opposition in the senate. Every time McCain "reached across the aisle" it was usually at the expense of a good conservative position. I consider myself a Reagan democrat and it doesn't energize me that he has stood up against his own party and sided with liberal democrats. I've always said McCain would go down in the election because why would democrats vote for a psuedo-democrat(McCain) when you can vote for the real thing (Obama)...One caller last night basically said the same thing I said about McCain....and he comes off as angry versus Obama's friendlier approach. While I disagree on about everything of Barack Obama, he has a likability factor that McCain hasn't come close to matching... For the latest poll information, you can go to www.realclearpolitics.com

My good friend Steve Gill on his radio show in Nashville today analysis of the polls is that more democrats are being polled. Steve may be correct but what I've found in politics over the years is that those who are behind in the polls always complain about them. Basically, I think the polls are about what I think is the mood of the people based on the shows around the country I have hosted. It is a close race but Obama is in front. At this point, it isn't a national race any more but one in a number of close states like Ohio and Florida. Check out Steve's web site at
www.GillReport.com

Last night in the debate, McCain said something about purchasing the mortgage's of those who have problems paying them and reducing their monthly cost based on the drop in the value. Now, I said on the air last night, are we serious about penalizing those of us who pay our mortgage's but our homes have lost value because of those who didn't? I'm sure the rest of Americans would like to get it on that welfare plan too. It confounded some of the republicans afterwards including Mitt Romney. Romney was there to support McCain's economic policy and he seemed stunned by the comment McCain made.